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Change point detection is one of the most challenging statistical problems because the number and position of these points are unknown. In this article, we will first introduce the concept of change point and then obtain the parameter estimation of the first-order autoregressive model AR(1); in order to investigate the precision of estimated parameters, we have done a simulation study. The precision and consistency of parameters were evaluated using MSE. The simulation study shows that parameter estimation is consistent. In the sense that as the sample size increases, the MSE of different parameters converges to zero. Next, the AR(1) model with the change point was fitted to Iran's annual inflation rate data (from 1944 to 2022), and the inflation rate in 2023  and 2024 was predicted using it.

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Researchers develop generalized families of distributions to better model data in fields like risk management, economics, and insurance. In this paper, a new distribution, the Extended Exponential Log-Logistic Distribution, is introduced, which belongs to the class of heavy-tailed distributions. Some statistical properties of the model, including moments, moment-generating function, entropy, and economic inequality curves, are derived. Six estimation methods are proposed for estimating the model parameters, and the performance of these methods is evaluated using randomly generated datasets. Additionally, several insurance-related measures, including Value at Risk, Tail Value at Risk, Tail Variance, and Tail Variance Premium, are calculated. Finally, two real insurance datasets are employed, showing that the proposed model fits the data better than many existing related models.