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Showing 1 results for Fuzzy Lee-Carter Model

Jalal Chachi, Mohammadreza Akhond, Shokoufeh Ahmadi,
Volume 18, Issue 2 (2-2025)
Abstract

The Lee-Carter model is a useful dynamic stochastic model representing the evolution of central mortality rates over time. This model only considers the uncertainty about the coefficient related to the mortality trend over time but not the age-dependent coefficients. This paper proposes a fuzzy extension of the Lee-Carter model that allows quantifying the uncertainty of both kinds of parameters. The variability of the time-dependent index is modeled as a stochastic fuzzy time series. Likewise, the uncertainty of the age-dependent coefficients is quantified using triangular fuzzy numbers. Considering this last hypothesis requires developing and solving a fuzzy regression model. Once the generalization of the desired fuzzy model is introduced, we will show how to fit the logarithm of the central mortality rate in Khuzestan province using by using fuzzy numbers arithmetic during the years 1401-1383 and random fuzzy forecast in the years 1402-1406.

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مجله علوم آماری – نشریه علمی پژوهشی انجمن آمار ایران Journal of Statistical Sciences

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