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An important issue in many cities is related to crime events, and spatio–temporal Bayesian approach leads to identifying crime patterns and hotspots. In Bayesian analysis of spatio–temporal crime data, there is no closed form for posterior distribution because of its non-Gaussian distribution and existence of latent variables. In this case, we face different challenges such as high dimensional parameters, extensive simulation and time-consuming computation in applying MCMC methods. In this paper, we use INLA to analyze crime data in Colombia. The advantages of this method can be the estimation of criminal events at a specific time and location and exploring unusual patterns in places.

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In this article, we consider the estimation of R{r,k}= P(X{r:n1} < Y{k:n2}), when the stress X and strength Y are two independent random variables from inverse Exponential distributions with unknown different scale parameters. R{r,k} is estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method, and also, the asymptotic confidence interval is obtained. Simulation studies and the performance of this model for two real data sets are presented.


 

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In this paper, some reliability concepts have been investigated based on the α-pessimistic and its relationship with the α-cut of a fuzzy number. For this purpose, if the lifetime distribution of the system components is known, using the definition of the scale fuzzy random variable, based on α-pessimistic, some reliability criteria have been investigated. Also, suppose the lifetime distribution of the components is unknown or only the fuzzy observations of the lifetime of the features are available. In that case, the empirical distribution function of the fuzzy data is used to estimate the reliability, and some examples are provided to illustrate the results.
 

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This article considers the stress-strength reliability of a coherent system in the state of stress at the component level. The coherent series, parallel and radar systems are investigated. For 2-component series or parallel systems and radar systems, this reliability based on Exponential distribution is estimated by maximum likelihood, uniformly minimum variance unbiased and Bayes methods. Also, simulation studies have been done to check estimators' performance, and real data are analyzed.
 

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In this paper, fuzzy order statistics are expressed based on the concept of α-value, and some of its applications in reliability have been examined. For this purpose, if the lifetime distribution of the system components is known, some of the reliability criteria of the $i$th order statistic using the definition of a fuzzy random variable based on the α-value have been investigated. Also, if the lifetime distribution of the components is unknown or only the fuzzy observations of the lifetime of the components are available, the empirical distribution function of the fuzzy data is used to estimate the reliability based on ordinal statistics, and examples are provided to illustrate the results.

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Maximum entropy copula theory is a combination of copula and entropy theory. This method obtains the maximum entropy distribution of random variables by considering the dependence structure. In this paper, the most entropic copula based on Blest's measure is introduced, and its parameter estimation method is investigated. The simulation results show that if the data has low tail dependence, the proposed distribution performs better compared to the most entropic copula distribution based on Spearman's coefficient. Finally, using the monthly rainfall series data of Zahedan station, the application of this method in the analysis of hydrological data is investigated.

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First, this article defines a meter between fuzzy numbers using the support function. Then, based on the support function, the concepts of variance, covariance, and correlation coefficient between fuzzy random variables are expressed, and their properties are investigated. Then, using the above concepts, the p-order fuzzy autoregressive model is introduced based on fuzzy random variables, and its properties are investigated. Finally, to explain the problem further, examples will be presented and compared with similar models using some goodness of fit criteria.

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Often, in sample surveys, respondents refused to answer some questions of a sensitive nature. Randomized response methods are designed not to reveal respondent confidentiality. In this article, a new quantitative randomized response method is introduced, and by conducting a series of simulation studies, we show that the proposed method is preferable to the cumulative and multiplicative methods. By using unbiased predictors, we estimate the covariance between two sensitive variables. In an experimental study using the proposed method, the average number of cheating and the average daily cigarette consumption of the Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz students are estimated along with their variance, and an estimate for the covariance between them is provided.

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In this paper, based on the concept of $alpha$-values of fuzzy random variables, the fuzzy moving average model of order $q$ is introduced. In this regard, first, the definitions of variance, covariance, and correlation coefficient between fuzzy random variables are presented, and their properties are investigated. In the following, while introducing the fuzzy moving average model of order $q$, this model's autocovariance and autocorrelation functions are calculated. Finally, some examples are presented for the obtained results.

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This paper introduces the dynamic weighted cumulative residual extropy criterion as a generalization of the weighted cumulative residual extropy criterion. The relationship of the proposed criterion with reliability criteria such as weighted mean residual lifetime, hazard rate function, and second-order conditional moment are studied. Also, characterization properties, upper and lower bounds, inequalities, and stochastic orders based on dynamic weighted cumulative residual extropy and the effect of linear transformation on it will be presented. Then, a non-parametric estimator based on the empirical method for the introduced criterion is given, and its asymptotic properties are studied. Finally, an application of the dynamic weighted cumulative residual extropy in selecting the appropriate data distribution on a real data set is discussed.

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In this article, autoregressive spatial regression and second-order moving average will be presented to model the outputs of a heavy-tailed skewed spatial random field resulting from the developed multivariate generalized Skew-Laplace distribution. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method using the Kolbeck-Leibler divergence criterion. Also, the best spatial predictor will be provided. Then, a simulation study is conducted to validate and evaluate the performance of the proposed model. The method is applied to analyze a real data.

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The Lee-Carter model is a useful dynamic stochastic model representing the evolution of central mortality rates over time. This model only considers the uncertainty about the coefficient related to the mortality trend over time but not the age-dependent coefficients. This paper proposes a fuzzy extension of the Lee-Carter model that allows quantifying the uncertainty of both kinds of parameters. The variability of the time-dependent index is modeled as a stochastic fuzzy time series. Likewise, the uncertainty of the age-dependent coefficients is quantified using triangular fuzzy numbers. Considering this last hypothesis requires developing and solving a fuzzy regression model. Once the generalization of the desired fuzzy model is introduced, we will show how to fit the logarithm of the central mortality rate in Khuzestan province using by using fuzzy numbers arithmetic during the years 1401-1383 and random fuzzy forecast in the years 1402-1406.

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This article introduces a new extension of the log-logistic distribution, and its properties and parameter estimation are studied and analyzed. It is shown that adding a parameter to this distribution makes its shape more symmetric and less skewed as the parameter increases. Unlike the original distribution, the moments of the new distribution and its quantile function always exist. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the reliability measures, such as the hazard rate function, the mean residual life function, and stochastic orderings, are more flexible in the new distribution. Additionally, the parameters of the distribution are estimated using the LLP and ML methods, and the efficiency and consistency of the estimators are evaluated through simulation studies. Finally, the practical applicability of the model is demonstrated by applying the new model to real-world data from airborne equipment and lung cancer patients.

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‎Support vector machine (SVM) as a supervised algorithm was initially invented for the binary case‎, ‎then due to its applications‎, ‎multi-class algorithms were also designed and are still being studied as research‎. ‎Recently‎, ‎models have been presented to improve multi-class methods‎. ‎Most of them examine the cases in which the inputs are non-random‎, ‎while in the real world‎, ‎we are faced with uncertain and imprecise data‎. ‎Therefore‎, ‎this paper examines a model in which the inputs are uncertain and the problem's constraints are also probabilistic‎. ‎Using statistical theorems and mathematical expectations‎, ‎the problem's constraints have been removed from the random state‎. ‎Then‎, ‎the moment estimation method has been used to estimate the mathematical expectation‎. ‎Using Monte Carlo simulation‎, ‎synthetic data has been generated and the bootstrap resampling method has been used to provide samples as input to the model and the accuracy of the model has been examined‎. ‎Finally‎, ‎the proposed model was trained with real data and its accuracy was evaluated with statistical indicators‎. ‎The results from simulation and real examples show the superiority of the proposed model over the model based on deterministic inputs‎.

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Financial and economic indicators, such as housing prices, often show spatial correlation and heterogeneity. While spatial econometric models effectively address spatial dependency, they face challenges in capturing heterogeneity. Geographically weighted regression is naturally used to model this heterogeneity, but it can become too complex when data show homogeneity across subregions. In this paper, spatially homogeneous subareas are identified through spatial clustering, and Bayesian spatial econometric models are then fitted to each subregion. The integrated nested Laplace approximation method is applied to overcome the computational complexity of posterior inference and the difficulties of MCMC algorithms. The proposed methodology is assessed through a simulation study and applied to analyze housing prices in Mashhad City.

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It was proved about 60 years ago that if a continuous random variable X has an increasing failure rate  then its order statistics will also be increasing failure rate, and this problem remained unproved for the discrete case until recently a proof method using an integral inequality was provided. In this article, we present a completely different method to solve this problem.

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Events in one financial institution can affect other institutions. For this reason, systemic risk is of interest to risk analysts, and the most important methods of measuring it are the CoVaR and CoES. If there is a dependence between the returns of two financial institutions, Copula functions can be used to examine the structure of the dependence between them. Since return data are often  are unstable  over time, ARMA-GARCH time series models can be used to model variability. In this paper, CoVaR is evaluated for four copula functions, and then CoES are estimated based on that in ARMA-GARCH models with GED  distributions. Then, these two measures are calculated with the returns of  Tejarat and Mellat banks.

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This paper presents a nonparametric Bayesian method for estimating nonstationary covariance structures in big spatial datasets. The approach extends the Vecchia approximation and assumes conditional independence among ordered data points, leading to a sparse precision matrix and sparse Cholesky decomposition. This enables modeling an $n$-dimensional Gaussian process as a sequence of Bayesian linear regressions. Data ordering via maximum minimum distance improves model performance. Applying the grouping algorithm to ordered data removes weak dependencies and defines a block-sparse covariance structure, significantly reducing computational burden and enhancing accuracy. Simulations and real data analysis show that posterior samples from the proposed method yield narrower uncertainty intervals than those from ungrouped approaches.