---

Two stage linear models are applicable when the data of some dependent and independent variables was obtained at to time stage, and we want to use from the data of two stage for linear model fitting. In this article we introduce multistage and, as a special case, two-stage linear models. Then we obtain the parameter estimation by two methods and show that the estimation are the same for methods. Since the expression of estimations are very complicated we give some R program for computing the parameter estimation of two-stage linear models, then show its application in an illustrative example. Also we propose a very simple computational methods for parameter estimation which did not need to complicated expression and give and R program for it.

---

Prediction of spatial variability is one of the most important issues in the analysis of spatial data. So predictions are usually made by assuming that the data follow a spatial model. In General, the spatial models are the spatial autoregressive (SAR), the conditional autoregressive and the moving average models. In this paper, we estimated parameter of SAR(2,1) model by using maximum likelihood and obtained formulas for predicting in SAR models, including the prediction within the data (interpolation) and outside the data (extrapolation). Finally, we evaluate the prediction methods by using image processing data.

---

‎Before analyzing a time series data‎, ‎it is better to verify the dependency of the data‎, ‎because if the data be independent‎, ‎the fitting of the time series model is not efficient‎. ‎In recent years‎, ‎the power divergence statistics used for the goodness of fit test‎. ‎In this paper‎, ‎we introduce an independence test of time series via power divergence which depends on the parameter λ‎. ‎We obtain asymptotic distribution of the test statistic‎. ‎Also using a simulation study‎, ‎we estimate the error type I and test power for some λ and n‎. ‎Our simulation study shows that for extremely large sample sizes‎, ‎the estimated error type I converges to the nominal α‎, ‎for any λ‎. ‎Furthermore‎, ‎the modified chi-square‎, ‎modified likelihood ratio‎, ‎and Freeman-Tukey test have the most power‎.

---

Change point detection is one of the most challenging statistical problems because the number and position of these points are unknown. In this article, we will first introduce the concept of change point and then obtain the parameter estimation of the first-order autoregressive model AR(1); in order to investigate the precision of estimated parameters, we have done a simulation study. The precision and consistency of parameters were evaluated using MSE. The simulation study shows that parameter estimation is consistent. In the sense that as the sample size increases, the MSE of different parameters converges to zero. Next, the AR(1) model with the change point was fitted to Iran's annual inflation rate data (from 1944 to 2022), and the inflation rate in 2023  and 2024 was predicted using it.