The GARCH(1,1) and GARCH(1,1)-t models lead to highly volatile quantile forecasts, while historical simulation, Variance–Covariance, adaptive generalized Pareto distribution and non-adaptive generalized Pareto distribution models provide more stable quantile forecasts. In general, GARCH(1,1)-t, generalized Pareto distribution models and historical simulation are preferable for most quantiles. |