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Showing 2 results for Exponential Smoothing
Vahid Rezaei Tabar,
Volume 26, Issue 2 (3-2022)
Abstract
At the end of December 2019, the spread of a new infectious disease was reported in Wuhan, China, caused by a new coronavirus and officially named Covid-19 by the World Health Organization. As the number of victims of the virus exceeded 1,000, the World Health Organization chose the official name Covid-19 for the disease, which refers to "corona", "virus", "disease" and the year 2019.
The forecasting about Covid-19 can help the government make better decisions. In this paper, an objective approach is used for forecasting Covid-19 based on the statistical methods. The most important goal in this paper is to forecast the prevalence of coronavirus for confirmed, dead and improved cases and to estimate the duration of the management of this virus using the exponential smoothing method. The exponential smoothing family model is used for short time-series data. This model is a kind of moving average model that modifies itself. In other words, exponential smoothing is one of the most widely used statistical methods for time series forecasting, and the idea is that recent observations will usually provide the best guidance for the future. Finally, according to the exponential smoothing, we will provide some suggestions.
Mrs Parya Torabi Kahlan, Mr Alireza Zahedian,
Volume 28, Issue 2 (3-2024)
Abstract
Small and medium enterprises play a significant role in creating job opportunities, gross domestic product, increasing the production of domestic products and exports, and are considered one of the key pillars of achieving the economic growth and development of countries. The purpose of this article is to explain the position of SMEs and their contribution in employment, economy, export and access to banking resources in some selected countries and compare them with the data available in Iran. For this purpose, the total number of micro and small establishment in the private sector of the country (less than 50 employees) and the number of their persons employed have been estimated using the data of the labour force survey during 10 years period, and their values are predicted for 1404 using the double exponential smoothing method. The results indicate that the number of establishments with less than 50 employees in private sector increased during the period under review, and by 1404, its count will reach 4,596,855, so that the share of the number of persons employed in these establishments is predicted to be 82.6 percent in the 1404. However, the evidence shows that the share of these enterprises in bank facilities over the past years was only 4.5 percent, which is very low compared to other countries. The findings of this research are helpful for the support programs of the government for SMEs.
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