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Showing 2 results for Covid-19
Vahid Rezaei Tabar, Volume 26, Issue 2 (3-2022)
Abstract
At the end of December 2019, the spread of a new infectious disease was reported in Wuhan, China, caused by a new coronavirus and officially named Covid-19 by the World Health Organization. As the number of victims of the virus exceeded 1,000, the World Health Organization chose the official name Covid-19 for the disease, which refers to "corona", "virus", "disease" and the year 2019.
The forecasting about Covid-19 can help the government make better decisions. In this paper, an objective approach is used for forecasting Covid-19 based on the statistical methods. The most important goal in this paper is to forecast the prevalence of coronavirus for confirmed, dead and improved cases and to estimate the duration of the management of this virus using the exponential smoothing method. The exponential smoothing family model is used for short time-series data. This model is a kind of moving average model that modifies itself. In other words, exponential smoothing is one of the most widely used statistical methods for time series forecasting, and the idea is that recent observations will usually provide the best guidance for the future. Finally, according to the exponential smoothing, we will provide some suggestions.
Ramin Kazemi, Mohammad Qasem Vahidi-Asl, Volume 26, Issue 2 (3-2022)
Abstract
Knowledge of statistics, ever since its inception, has served every aspect of human life and every individual and social class. It has shown its extraordinary potential in dealing with numerous problems encountering human beings since the occurring of Covid-19 in Wuhan, China. A vast amount of literature has appeared showing the power of the science of statistics in answering different questions regarding this disease and all its consequences. But it comes short of, as an instance, in modelling the geometry of disease spread among societies and in the world as a whole. Here the only way to deal with this matter is to resort to probability theory and its many ramifications in providing realistic models in describing this spread. A very power tool in this regard is percolation theory, which besides its many applications in mathematical physics, is very handy in modelling epidemic diseases, among them the Covid-19. A short description of this theory with its use in modelling the spread of epidemic deceases, shows the importance of dealing with probability as a separate subject in the curricula and not a subordinate of the science of statistics which is now dominant in the statistics major curricula in the Iranian schools.
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